Yarrawonga Chronicle

Solid gold crop

By Georgia Rossiter

Goulburn Valley canola farmers are set to reap the benefits of high prices and high yields this season.

Continued shortages in the supply of the oilseed crop overseas have seen prices remain at more than $800/tonne, according to AWB.

And the latest three-month rainfall outlook, issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, says spring rainfall is very likely to be above median in all cropping regions in Victoria.

It is also highly likely that northern cropping regions will receive rainfall in September that is above average.

Commodity forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, said the favourable outlook for spring rainfall, combined with the solid foundation laid during winter, meant yield prospects were average to above average in most cropping regions.

Wyuna East mixed farmer Jake Thompson planted a hybrid variety of canola this season and is expecting a good yield from the crop.

“We’re expecting big things from canola this year,” he said.

Advanced Ag Shepparton agronomist Tim Anderson said while it would be hard to beat last season’s yield, farmers were still expecting a good season come December.

“They probably won’t be as good as last year, because they were probably (the best) yields we’ve ever seen,” Mr Anderson said.

“But they’ll be solid.”

ABARES said while this year’s yield was expected to fall by 10 per cent compared to last year, it was still expected to be above long-term averages.

ABARES also recorded a 24 per cent increase in canola crops in Australia this year, the third highest on record at three million hectares.

Mr Anderson said Advanced Ag sold one of its largest volumes of canola seed this year.

“For a dry start there was definitely more acres planted,” he said.

Many crops in the region have recovered from the bumpy start to the season, and quality is still expected to be high.

“It was a tough start for it due to patchy germination and late autumn break but since then it’s been very good,” Mr Anderson said.

Mr Thompson said they test the quality of their canola by seeing how far their kids can run through the paddock before getting stuck.

“You want to know how good your canola is? See how hard it is to walk through,” he said.

▯ More stories on the ABARES report and speculation over whether Australia has reached ‘peak acreage’ in crop production,

As Australia’s grain industry forecasts one of its largest crops on record, a discussion paper released by ANZ last week questions whether the nation has finally hit ‘peak’ grain acreage.

According to the report, the Australian grains sector remains on track to record one of its largest production volumes ever, driven by two seasons of optimal weather conditions.

At the same time, strong global demand for Australian grain looks set to continue, driven by poor weather forecasts for some Northern Hemisphere grain producers and strong global demand both for food and animal feed.

ANZ’s head of Food, Beverage and Agribusiness Insights Michael Whitehead said one issue industry stakeholders need to contemplate is whether the industry has reached a point of “peak acreage”, meaning Australia’s current cropping area is unlikely to rise much further in future.

“Australia’s cropping acreage has varied considerably over the decades, but it has broadly been on an upward trend,” Mr Whitehead said.

“To some degree, the growth rates of Australia’s three largest agri sectors — cropping, cattle and sheep — impact each other,

with the major interaction being between cropping and sheep.

“Over the past decade, Australia’s cropping acreage has plateaued to a degree not seen before, and while there was some volatility

caused by drought during that period, cropping acreage would appear to have peaked in a band between 20 to 23 million hectares.

“Over the same period, Australia’s sheep numbers have also seen their steadiest period, sitting within a narrow band of 68 to 75 million head.

“Looking ahead, particularly over the next 10 years, the experience of the past decade would suggest that Australia’s main agri sectors are likely to remain at this level for the medium term and possibly longer.

“Importantly, in contrast to the plateauing of Australian crop acreage, crop production levels show little signs of slowing in their overall growth.”

The discussion paper also explored the increasing diversity of Australia’s cropping breakdown, with wheat’s acreage share dropping from about 80 per cent in the 1960s to around 50 per cent today.

While wheat, barley and canola have been the dominant crops, other varieties such as oats and sorghum may see an increase in production share.

It also forecast an increasing number of larger farms choosing to produce pulses, including chickpeas, lentils and beans.

Domestically, this would be driven by the growth of the plant-based protein market, while the export demand for these is also likely to see strong growth, particularly as COVID-19 disruptions fade.

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